day 74
| the real internet 1 |
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Figure 1 shows projections for revenues derived
from the Internet as estimated by Forrester Research and ParaTechnology and extended by yours truly. Optimistic or 10-year projections as well as pessimistic or 5-year projections are made by assuming each segment will peter out in either 5 or 10-years. Regardless of how you slice it, the best projections claim that revenues will level off at around $60-75 billion in about 10 years. OK, so $60 billion is no small pile of change, but it is far too small to seriously consider the Internet as the platform of the future. Edutainment (books, movies, and video games) bigger than this today (around $100 billion). The commodity PC business is over $100 billion, as are many other "major" industries. IBM makes more money than this. The projections in Figure 1 are simply not impressive enough to explain the excitement surrounding the WWW. Unless moneymen (and moneywomen) think of something more compelling than e-mail, America Online, and surfing the web with Yahoo and friends, the whole Internet thing will go bust. What goes up, could come down with a thud. Big bucks are yet to be made - but how? The sharpies of Silicon Valley have their eyes on a much bigger pie. Tomorrow, I will unveil the real tree that these hounds are sniffing up.
Figure 1. Growth of Revenue from the
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 Daily Dose Index |