day 50

microsoft smells $$s 7: i promised pictures

Yesterday, we showed Table 1, which contained numerical data for the learning curves shown below. Figures 1 and 2 show the effects of learning rates on the ability of a technology to muscle its way into the mainstream. A sharply declining curve in Figure 1 corresponds with a rapidly rising mainstream curve in Figure 2. Without low values of P and B, a technology such as software and packaging gets nowhere fast. Stuck in low gear, it is left behind by some other technology. Think of each technology listed in Table 1 as an axis in an innovation hyperspace. A point represents product in such a hyperspace. Low innovation corresponds to a product point near the origin. Conversely, a product point located a long way from the origin may mean a product lies outside its limits of innovation. The problem with over-the-wall products like PDAs is that they lie too far from the origin in innovation hyperspace.

Figure 1. Learning curves for some important technologies. These were derived from the parameters in Table 1. Figure 2. Mainstreaming curves derived from Figure 1. Some technologies simply take too long to mature, resulting in a barrier to an innovative product.

microsoft smells $$s 1 2 3 4 5 6 Daily Dose Index