day 67




tiny beans conquer world 4: chocol-holics


Figure 1. Revenue forecasts for component
technology, and leading standards, CORBA,
OpenDoc, and ActiveX.

Yesterday we saw how the future lies with

middleware.

Third party ActiveX developers will earn $180

million selling 2,500 reusable components to

Wintel addicts, see Figure 1 (Input, Inc.,

Datamation, July 1996, p. 62). OpenDoc

parts vendors will make $20 million. I am not

sure of the numbers for CORBA vendors, but my

guess is that they are on the verge of filing

bankruptcy or else doing other products. Java,

and its component technology called Java Beans,

probably generated more than $200 million for

advertisers alone. Another $500 million is

probably going up in smoke in the form of

venture capitalists investing in silly little

JavaSoft spin-outs like Marimba or high-risk

money pits like Dimension X.

Don't get me wrong. Like Ada, "OpenDoc is a

better solution," according to Dan Kara of

Software Productivity Group (Westboro,

MA). OpenDoc parts let developers build

middleware for all major platforms, and it works

with OLE, er, oops, ActiveX. If you are going to

develop for Wintel, why not use OpenDoc and

enjoy its extra benefits, too? OpenDoc is a

better ActiveX, than ActiveX. So what?

tiny beans conquer world 1 2 3



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