day 77

the real internet 4: the revenge of 3d

Figure 3. Original Virtual Reality, circa 1955. Yesterday, we learned how Silicon Valley moguls are gearing up for the future marketplace. TV is in its final throes as a technology and delivery system for mass communication. Broadcasting is dying, and narrowcasting is growing up. The target of opportunity is TV. Not books, not magazines, not e-mail, and not virtual communities of netheads hitting on each other for romance. LA LA Land in the 21st century will be the Web. So, now what? The battlefront has shifted from the media moguls to the computer nerds. And the computer nerds are not wasting time taking us to the next level -- 3D. Without 3D and high bandwidth connections, the WWW will be a dead duck. Without 3D, the WWW cannot displace TV. Without fast downloads, nobody except socially inept wireheads will use the WWW. Increasing bandwidth will take time, but 3D graphics at a commodity price are just around the corner. These will provide enough eye candy to stave off the demise of the WWW until existing Internet hardware is replaced by something much faster. 3D graphics via a webzine will hold on to the fledgling 20-30 million WWW viewers until cable modems and ADSL telephony become widely available. Anyone can already get this stuff at price points ranging from $200 to $400. Matrox, Orchid, STB Systems, Apple, Creative Labs, Diamond Multimedia, and Sigma Designs are hawking 3D accelerators that make PCs perform like $200 video games. Actually, $200 video games are probably the consumer products that will allow the WWW to challenge TV. Tomorrow I will describe such products. And one more thing: technology is not enough. Another piece of the puzzle must fall into place. Stay tuned.

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