day 98

alice in wired world 2: internet tv - again

I know I keep harping on the Internet TV thing. Maybe I protest too much, but it is big enough to threaten my livelihood-- computing. As Peter Cristy, President of MicroDesign, writes, Internet TV will slow down the PC industry. Cristy predicts that the $300 web browser from Sony, Philips, and others, will take a major bite out of the home PC segment. Keep in mind that there are 24 million TVs sold each year, and about 40% of the 40 million computers sold each year end up in homes. Internet TV could take a 16 million bite out of PC sales. If so, this spells doom for Apple, Packard-Bell, Compaq, and IBM. It also spells trouble for Intel, because most of these gadgets have MIPS processors instead of "Intel Inside." When television began its rapid ascent into the mainstream circa 1955 many industry insiders wondered where the content would come from. Who was going to fill the airwaves with programming? Now we know: the government- regulated airwaves became a toxic dumping ground for B movies, mediocre stageshows, advertisements, and lowest-common-denominator sitcoms. There was much more airtime than creativity. This led to a "mediocrity spiral": the number of viewing Joe Lunchbuckets went up as the quality of programing went down. Declining quality led to more Lunchbuckets which led to more consumerism which led to a greater decline in quality. About the only thing that improved was the sophistication of advertising. Will this happen to the Internet? My guess is that the huge demand for eye candy, sleeze, and general waste byproducts will seduce the content providers into giving the Joe Lunchbuckets what they want. Beer commercials on the I-way are the least of my worries. What concerns me more is the general decline in the Web as the masses start tuning into the Internet. Just as the ARPANet declined when business discovered the Internet, so will the Web decline as Couch Potatoes begin consuming large quantities of Wired World.

alice in wired world 1 Daily Dose Index