day 51

microsoft smells $$s 8: innovation hyperspace

Yesterday, we showed learning curves for each technology needed to build a PDA -- personal digital appliance. The outlook is not good for vendors that push too much technology all at once. Can we make a mainstream PDA? Current technology forces designers to compromise product utility. This has held back the PDA market. Essentially, PDA design is a trade-off between packaging (weight, size, power) and functionality (software, processor speed, networking, wireless). The most exotic PDAs are languishing on store shelves because they require the consumer to absorb too much innovation. Compare the HP 200LX versus the Apple MessagePad. The HP machine will run for upwards of 100 hours on a battery charge, but the MessagePad is gasping after 10-20 hours. The Psions, Sharps and HPs are primitive machines compared to the Sony Magic Link and Motorola Envoy. Yet, the dull machines easily connect to wireless services, making pager and e-mail connectivity as easy as placing a phone call. Conversely, getting my e-mail from AOL into my Newton is about like changing into my Red&Blue Superman suit while inside the phone booth. I can do it, but why wear tight pants? High-tech companies are good at squeezing novel products out of silicon, but making compelling products is a lot tougher. Innovation hyperspace is a rough neighborhood. When engineers combine fundamental technologies to create a new product, they must add together the learning curves to determine if the resulting product is capable of mainstreaming. That is, L = the sum of all P*B^t values corresponding with each technology. This sum was used to obtain the graphs in Figures 3 and 4 (tomorrow).

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