day 53
| microsoft smells $$s 10: the pda killer app |
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Yesterday, we showed the technology curves that
indicate when the PDA industry can become a profitable industry (2005). The winner will be Microsoft, because its Pegasus will be old technology rather than new. Sure, Microsoft will wipe out the competition like it has before; but even Microsoft cannot force PDAs onto a mass market until the PDA killer app comes along. And, of course, this is the wireless PC that fits into everyone's pocket. Wireless technology will dominate the PDA market. After all, why bother if you have to be connected to a telephone or LAN? Therefore, the true PDA market will lag behind the true wireless market by about two years. Remote access by way of wireless is the key movement that will revive PDAs. International Data Corp. projects that USA remote access revenues will reach $2.7B by 1997. Expect the mobile market, including wireless communications, to reach $7B by 1999. Figure 5 gives my 5- and 10-year forecasts based on data provided by IDC and others.
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(a) Revenues From USA Remote Access
(b) Revenues From Worldwide Mobile Market
Figure 5. The mobile client market is on the rapid rise. |
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If my guess is right, this means the golden age
of PDAs will start around 1997-98. Perfect timing for Microsoft's Pegasus, but too late for Apple, Motorola, and General Magic. |
microsoft smells $$s
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 Daily Dose Index |