day 24




artisans of the electrosphere 1: portrait of a programmer



"Portrait of a Merchant"
J. Gossaert
c. 1478 - 1532

The contemporary idea of a programmer reminds

me of that classic painting, "Portrait of a

Merchant," dished out by Gossaert around the

time of Christopher Columbus. Staid, serious,

and focused on efficiency and business

fecundity, the popular-press image of a

programmer has led to a whole new lexicon, e.g.,

"nerd" and "transistor head." It has even

stimulated fads, e.g., pocket protector shirts

and junk food addiction. The programmer has

become a sort of anti-hero- superhuman but

disgusting. Mothers, don't let your cowboys grow

up to be programmers!

Dampen the enthusiasm. The productivity of

programmers has bumped along at an embarrassing

3-4% compounded annual rate, while the

productivity of hardware nerds has soared to an

annual compound rate of over 48%. Software

development is not keeping up with inflation,

meaning that production of the world's most

important products is slipping further and

further behind. This will not go unnoticed, as

there is simply too much money to be made for

programming to remain a backward and primitive

practice. After all, free enterprise abhors a

vacuum.

The literature is full of examples of software

development failures and defeats. A colleague

recently crowed that the U.S. Government had

written off $42,000,000,000 in failed software

development projects. If the technologically

ignorant taxpayer ever finds out, we could be in

for scandal.

For years the academic community has been crying

the warning, "the sky is falling, the sky is

falling." They have been duped into thinking

they can solve this problem if only everyone

would adopt the methodical, plodding, scientific

method. Unfortunately (though few of my friends

in academic positions will admit it), the

methodical, scientific, software engineering

approach has been a spectacular failure. The

billions of government money spent trying to

create a software science has gone down the

drain at many research institutes and

university labs. The reason? There isn't such a

thing as software engineering.

Tomorrow we examine the fate of software

engineering and show what is really going

on. What is the future of software development?

How will the steam that drives the software age

be generated?

artisans of the electrosphere: 1 2 3 4 5



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